AR · NYSE · STOCK
Antero Resources (AR) Stock Analysis
$35.90
52W $29.10 – $45.75
62/100
$11.04B
10.2
0.35
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is AR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Antero Resources (AR) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.11 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.89 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 10.2 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.2 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Revenue growing 25.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 153.2% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- 5 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Current ratio of 0.55 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 26%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.2 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 25.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 5 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.19) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.55 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.1 to 61.9.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->62 (+5).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
58.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.198
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$35.31
Resistance
$36.22
Bollinger %B
0.61
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$35.31
Above
EMA 21
$35.61
Above
EMA 50
$36.08
Below
EMA 200
$36.06
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
35
Profitability
49
Financial Health
49
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.2×
P/B Ratio
1.34×
PEG Ratio
0.07
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$45.75
52W Low
$29.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
840.2%
ROA
444.0%
Gross Margin
2602.1%
Operating Margin
2098.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.55
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 8.4%; Return on assets of 4.4%; Net margin of 19.3%; Gross margin of 26.0%; Current ratio of 0.40 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.55; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.55); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 10.0%; 5 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+167.4% -> -33.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 117.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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