ASTS · NASDAQ · STOCK
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Stock Analysis
$59.29
52W $39.50 – $133.86
53/100
$23.91B
-27.2
2.73
Is ASTS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.65 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.35 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 72 articles, 14d). Value Analyst remains cautious — price-to-book of 14.5x prices in significant intangible value. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 2256.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 72 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 14.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -35.1% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 70%
of 55 Communication Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 14.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 2256.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− Bollinger bandwidth of 21.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 72 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.4 to 53.4.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.051
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$52.90
Resistance
$60.91
Bollinger %B
0.26
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$60.73
Below
EMA 21
$62.27
Below
EMA 50
$66.42
Below
EMA 200
$73.09
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
31
Profitability
0
Financial Health
73
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-27.2×
P/B Ratio
9.28×
PEG Ratio
0.78
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$133.86
52W Low
$39.50
Quality & Growth
ROE
-1856.9%
ROA
-681.9%
Gross Margin
-1399.5%
Operating Margin
—
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.58
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -27.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.3x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -18.6%; Return on assets of -6.8%; Net margin of -536.7%; Gross margin of -14.0%; Current ratio of 13.05 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.58; Free cash flow per share is negative (-5.48); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 8.7%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-153.8% -> +47.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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