AXON · NASDAQ · STOCK
Axon Enterprise (AXON) Stock Analysis
$422.79
52W $339.01 – $764.02
48/100
$34.09B
170.4
1.44
Is AXON Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Axon Enterprise (AXON) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +12.22 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -7.78 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 172.4 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 34.6% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 172.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 13.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -40.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 20.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 96%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bearish
25
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 172.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 34.6% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -40.2% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 20.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 47.8 to 47.8.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.847
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$396.99
Resistance
$588.30
Bollinger %B
0.35
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$421.18
Above
EMA 21
$444.21
Below
EMA 50
$482.13
Below
EMA 200
$513.22
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
64
Profitability
42
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
170.4×
P/B Ratio
9.25×
PEG Ratio
-4.08
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$764.02
52W Low
$339.01
Quality & Growth
ROE
385.2%
ROA
178.4%
Gross Margin
5940.7%
Operating Margin
260.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.50
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 170.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.2x; PEG ratio of -4.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 3.9%; Return on assets of 1.8%; Net margin of 6.2%; Gross margin of 59.4%; Current ratio of 2.15 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.50; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.66); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.3%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-25.1% -> +16.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -11.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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