AXTA · NYSE · STOCK
Axalta (AXTA) Stock Analysis
$33.19
52W $24.94 – $38.61
49/100
$6.82B
19.5
1.24
Is AXTA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Axalta (AXTA) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.11 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.89 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 16.9% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -0.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -20.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 17 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 86%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -0.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 17 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.9 to 48.9.
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
14.8
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.404
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$31.52
Resistance
$31.94
Bollinger %B
0.04
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$33.24
Below
EMA 21
$34.31
Below
EMA 50
$34.52
Below
EMA 200
$32.56
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
88
Growth
80
Profitability
49
Financial Health
63
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.5×
P/B Ratio
2.70×
PEG Ratio
-0.97
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$38.61
52W Low
$24.94
Quality & Growth
ROE
1611.2%
ROA
497.4%
Gross Margin
3256.3%
Operating Margin
1324.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.22
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.7x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.1%; Return on assets of 5.0%; Net margin of 6.8%; Gross margin of 32.6%; Current ratio of 1.53 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.22; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.31); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.2%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-5.1% -> +28.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 12.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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