BTE · NYSE · STOCK
Baytex Energy (BTE) Stock Analysis
$4.82
52W $2.18 – $5.36
56/100
$3.61B
-7.5
0.57
Is BTE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.45 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.55 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.05) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 33.9 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- ROE of only 4.9% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -46.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -59.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 69%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 33.9 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -46.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.05) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.9 to 55.5.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.011
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$3.85
Resistance
$5.36
Bollinger %B
0.67
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$4.68
Above
EMA 21
$4.69
Above
EMA 50
$4.64
Above
EMA 200
$4.17
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
60
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-7.5×
P/B Ratio
2.30×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
1.36%
52W High
$5.36
52W Low
$2.18
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2525.2%
ROA
-1803.3%
Gross Margin
470.3%
Operating Margin
5112.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.07
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -7.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.3x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -25.3%; Return on assets of -18.0%; Net margin of -195.9%; Gross margin of 4.7%; Current ratio of 2.82 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.07; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.37); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 153.0%; EPS growth accelerating (+71.9% -> +355.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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