BTE · NYSE · STOCK
Baytex Energy (BTE) Stock Analysis
$5.18
52W $2.18 – $5.36
61/100
$3.77B
-7.8
0.57
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is BTE Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.88 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.12 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.05) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 35.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- ROE of only 4.9% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -46.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -59.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 76 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 32%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 35.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -46.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 76 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.05) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.5 to 61.1.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+13); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Risk Analyst: score 80->75 (-5).
- Technical Analyst: score 69->61 (-8); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
78.7
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.049
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$3.85
Resistance
$5.20
Bollinger %B
1.07
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$4.84
Above
EMA 21
$4.76
Above
EMA 50
$4.68
Above
EMA 200
$4.20
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
95
Growth
60
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-7.8×
P/B Ratio
2.39×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
1.30%
52W High
$5.36
52W Low
$2.18
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2525.2%
ROA
-1803.3%
Gross Margin
470.3%
Operating Margin
5112.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.07
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -7.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.4x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -25.3%; Return on assets of -18.0%; Net margin of -195.9%; Gross margin of 4.7%; Current ratio of 2.82 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.07; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.37); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 153.0%; EPS growth accelerating (+71.9% -> +355.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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