COP · NYSE · STOCK
ConocoPhillips (COP) Stock Analysis
$134.12
52W $85.57 – $141.62
56/100
$163.37B
17.7
0.13
Is COP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates ConocoPhillips (COP) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.85 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.15 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 4.0% pays you to wait — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 70 is in overbought territory — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 64%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Dividend yield of 4.0% pays you to wait
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 70 is in overbought territory
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.4 to 56.1.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 40% to 60%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 60->55 (-4).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 48->61 (+13); +1 bearish signal(s); +2 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
70.3
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.494
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$112.23
Resistance
$135.18
Bollinger %B
0.74
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$130.45
Above
EMA 21
$130.05
Above
EMA 50
$128.06
Above
EMA 200
$117.82
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
58
Growth
68
Profitability
55
Financial Health
81
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.7×
P/B Ratio
2.49×
PEG Ratio
13.23
Dividend Yield
2.51%
52W High
$141.62
52W Low
$85.57
Quality & Growth
ROE
1238.7%
ROA
655.1%
Gross Margin
2767.9%
Operating Margin
2191.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.36
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of 13.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.4%; Return on assets of 6.6%; Net margin of 14.7%; Gross margin of 27.7%; Current ratio of 1.54 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.36; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.29); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.3%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+85.3% -> +71.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 128.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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