CXW · NYSE · STOCK
CoreCivic (CXW) Stock Analysis
$32.94
52W $15.74 – $36.55
55/100
$3.26B
26.8
0.57
Is CXW Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) Buy with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +19.65 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -0.35 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 33.3% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- EPS growing 33.3% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
Bear Case
- P/E of 25.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 63%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 25.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 33.3% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.0 to 55.4.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: score 70->60 (-10); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.073
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.46
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$32.68
Above
EMA 21
$32.95
Below
EMA 50
$32.47
Above
EMA 200
$26.93
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
80
Growth
68
Profitability
26
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
26.8×
P/B Ratio
2.36×
PEG Ratio
0.87
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$36.55
52W Low
$15.74
Quality & Growth
ROE
829.1%
ROA
357.7%
Gross Margin
1979.6%
Operating Margin
1265.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.94
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 26.8 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.4x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 8.3%; Return on assets of 3.6%; Net margin of 5.1%; Gross margin of 19.8%; Current ratio of 1.32 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.94; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.56); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 6.5%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+46.2% -> -2.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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