DUOL · NASDAQ · STOCK
Duolingo (DUOL) Stock Analysis
$154.34
52W $87.89 – $353.00
65/100
$7.20B
17.4
0.89
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is DUOL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Duolingo (DUOL) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.26 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.74 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 30.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 29.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 245.4% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 6.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 23.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 23%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 30.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 6.0x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
71
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 29.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 23.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.7 to 64.7.
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
61.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.079
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$146.00
Resistance
$161.93
Bollinger %B
0.79
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$151.91
Above
EMA 21
$145.78
Above
EMA 50
$137.00
Above
EMA 200
$154.93
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
78
Growth
45
Profitability
100
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.4×
P/B Ratio
5.12×
PEG Ratio
0.07
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$353.00
52W Low
$87.89
Quality & Growth
ROE
3074.0%
ROA
2078.5%
Gross Margin
7234.3%
Operating Margin
1417.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.06
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.1x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 30.7%; Return on assets of 20.8%; Net margin of 35.9%; Gross margin of 72.3%; Current ratio of 2.72 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.06; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.68); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.5%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+0.0% -> -25.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -27.5%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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