EXP · NYSE · STOCK
Eagle Materials (EXP) Stock Analysis
$180.53
52W $171.99 – $245.53
50/100
$5.50B
14.1
1.37
Is EXP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Eagle Materials (EXP) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.14 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.86 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Technical Analyst remains cautious — price structure making lower highs and lower lows. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 26.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -6.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 16 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 79%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 4.0x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -6.9% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.9 to 49.9.
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
28.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.791
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$172.23
Resistance
$193.44
Bollinger %B
0.19
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$182.08
Below
EMA 21
$188.98
Below
EMA 50
$198.02
Below
EMA 200
$208.93
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
89
Growth
48
Profitability
76
Financial Health
82
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.1×
P/B Ratio
3.73×
PEG Ratio
-2.03
Dividend Yield
0.56%
52W High
$245.53
52W Low
$171.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
2873.6%
ROA
1103.0%
Gross Margin
2702.0%
Operating Margin
2310.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.21
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.7x; PEG ratio of -2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 28.7%; Return on assets of 11.0%; Net margin of 17.3%; Gross margin of 27.0%; Current ratio of 3.23 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.21; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.51); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 3.0%; EPS growth accelerating (-40.7% -> +72.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -12.5%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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