EXPD · NYSE · STOCK
Expeditors International (EXPD) Stock Analysis
$189.24
52W $112.95 – $194.59
64/100
$25.36B
28.1
1.06
Is EXPD Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Expeditors International (EXPD) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.95 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.05 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. The main limiting factor is p/e of 26.7 is moderate-to-rich. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 40.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 26.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 8.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- RSI at 73 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 12%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 40.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 26.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 73 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.0 to 64.0.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
72.5
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.029
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
1.01
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$190.69
Below
EMA 21
$188.05
Above
EMA 50
$181.50
Above
EMA 200
$160.83
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
27
Growth
83
Profitability
62
Financial Health
82
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.1×
P/B Ratio
12.10×
PEG Ratio
2.34
Dividend Yield
0.81%
52W High
$194.59
52W Low
$112.95
Quality & Growth
ROE
3454.5%
ROA
1662.9%
Gross Margin
2389.4%
Operating Margin
983.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.27
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 28.1 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 12.1x; PEG ratio of 2.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 34.5%; Return on assets of 16.6%; Net margin of 7.6%; Gross margin of 23.9%; Current ratio of 1.57 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.27; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.99); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 18.0%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+14.8% -> +18.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 51.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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