FDX · NYSE · STOCK
FedEx (FDX) Stock Analysis
$291.69
52W $182.09 – $345.37
62/100
$69.01B
15.9
1.33
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is FDX Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates FedEx (FDX) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.40 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.60 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 22%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 15.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.0 to 61.6.
- Conviction changed from high to moderate.
- Committee agreement fell sharply from 80% to 60%.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.142
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$282.54
Resistance
$293.30
Bollinger %B
0.45
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$290.41
Above
EMA 21
$295.54
Below
EMA 50
$306.76
Below
EMA 200
$317.83
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
78
Growth
85
Profitability
36
Financial Health
57
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.9×
P/B Ratio
2.22×
PEG Ratio
2.02
Dividend Yield
1.64%
52W High
$345.37
52W Low
$182.09
Quality & Growth
ROE
1400.8%
ROA
448.1%
Gross Margin
2289.9%
Operating Margin
673.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.36
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of 2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.0%; Return on assets of 4.5%; Net margin of 4.7%; Gross margin of 22.9%; Current ratio of 1.48 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.36; Free cash flow per share is positive (21.23); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.8%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+8.9% -> +20.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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