FER · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ferrovial (FER) Stock Analysis
$50.15
52W $49.43 – $74.79
44/100
$36.38B
51.9
0.80
Is FER Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ferrovial (FER) Watch with a composite score of 44/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +16.36 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -3.64 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 52.2 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- P/E of 52.2 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 6.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.00 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -81.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 18 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
44/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 99%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bearish
28
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 52.2 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -81.7% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
31
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.00) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.20 across 10 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 43.6 to 43.6.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
17.7
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.240
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Bollinger %B
0.03
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$51.93
Below
EMA 21
$53.96
Below
EMA 50
$57.47
Below
EMA 200
$62.41
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
46
Growth
75
Profitability
35
Financial Health
33
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
51.9×
P/B Ratio
5.62×
PEG Ratio
-0.76
Dividend Yield
2.49%
52W High
$74.79
52W Low
$49.43
Quality & Growth
ROE
1503.0%
ROA
323.9%
Gross Margin
1041.7%
Operating Margin
1041.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.86
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 51.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.6x; PEG ratio of -0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 15.0%; Return on assets of 3.2%; Net margin of 6.1%; Gross margin of 10.4%; Current ratio of 1.20 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.86; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.87); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 5.3%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-90.2% -> -25.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -92.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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