FERG · NYSE · STOCK
Ferguson (FERG) Stock Analysis
$227.82
52W $212.13 – $271.64
61/100
$42.77B
21.1
1.12
Is FERG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Ferguson plc (FERG) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.13 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.87 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is eps growing 33.6% yoy. The main limiting factor is 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 40.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 33.6% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 29%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 40.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 7.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
72
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 33.6% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 64.4 to 60.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.668
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$221.07
Resistance
$243.40
Bollinger %B
0.67
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$221.23
Above
EMA 21
$221.92
Above
EMA 50
$225.88
Above
EMA 200
$231.56
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
52
Growth
89
Profitability
37
Financial Health
75
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.1×
P/B Ratio
6.89×
PEG Ratio
1.72
Dividend Yield
1.61%
52W High
$271.64
52W Low
$212.13
Quality & Growth
ROE
1074.0%
ROA
345.0%
Gross Margin
3055.2%
Operating Margin
900.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.03
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.9x; PEG ratio of 1.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 10.7%; Return on assets of 3.5%; Net margin of 6.4%; Gross margin of 30.6%; Current ratio of 1.73 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.03; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.53); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.1%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+8.6% -> +48.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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