FERG · NYSE · STOCK
Ferguson plc
$251.91
52W $207.64 – $271.64
63/100
$48.78B
24.0
1.12
Is FERG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Ferguson plc (FERG) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 4 analysts with 75% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.06 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.94 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 21.0% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 37 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Bollinger bandwidth of 21.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
75%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 31%
of 223 Industrials peers
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 21.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 37 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
58.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.629
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$221.07
Resistance
$256.61
Bollinger %B
0.76
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$250.33
Above
EMA 21
$242.61
Above
EMA 50
$238.00
Above
EMA 200
$234.92
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
39
Profitability
37
Financial Health
77
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.0×
P/B Ratio
7.86×
PEG Ratio
1.97
Dividend Yield
1.39%
52W High
$271.64
52W Low
$207.64
Quality & Growth
ROE
1074.0%
ROA
345.0%
Gross Margin
3055.2%
Operating Margin
900.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.96
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 24.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.9x; PEG ratio of 2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 10.7%; Return on assets of 3.5%; Net margin of 6.4%; Gross margin of 30.6%; Current ratio of 1.73 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.96; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.21); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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