FTAI · NASDAQ · STOCK
FTAI Aviation (FTAI) Stock Analysis
$170.00
52W $149.50 – $323.51
50/100
$17.44B
36.5
1.57
Is FTAI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.46 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.54 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 139.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 6.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 45.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 35.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 60.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 10.32 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 93%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 139.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 35.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 45.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 10.32) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.5 to 49.5.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
42.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.719
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$149.81
Resistance
$184.37
Bollinger %B
0.32
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$172.22
Below
EMA 21
$177.65
Below
EMA 50
$191.54
Below
EMA 200
$211.04
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
13
Growth
19
Profitability
76
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
36.5×
P/B Ratio
43.16×
PEG Ratio
2.52
Dividend Yield
1.00%
52W High
$323.51
52W Low
$149.50
Quality & Growth
ROE
14994.1%
ROA
1145.6%
Gross Margin
3039.4%
Operating Margin
2676.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
8.55
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 36.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 43.2x; PEG ratio of 2.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 149.9%; Return on assets of 11.5%; Net margin of 15.9%; Gross margin of 30.4%; Current ratio of 5.28 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 8.55; Free cash flow per share is negative (-12.20); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 19.3%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+19.4% -> -12.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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