HP · NYSE · STOCK
Helmerich & Payne (HP) Stock Analysis
$39.89
52W $21.76 – $48.17
57/100
$3.99B
-28.5
0.69
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is HP Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP) Buy with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.71 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.29 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 10 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.8x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 10 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- ROE of only -5.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 57%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 0.8x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -5.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 10 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.3 to 57.3.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
53.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.126
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$32.77
Resistance
$41.77
Bollinger %B
0.52
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$39.49
Above
EMA 21
$39.98
Below
EMA 50
$39.98
Below
EMA 200
$36.05
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
44
Profitability
0
Financial Health
93
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-28.5×
P/B Ratio
1.55×
PEG Ratio
0.21
Dividend Yield
2.51%
52W High
$48.17
52W Low
$21.76
Quality & Growth
ROE
-605.9%
ROA
-246.2%
Gross Margin
1049.0%
Operating Margin
606.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.72
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -28.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.5x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -6.1%; Return on assets of -2.5%; Net margin of -3.4%; Gross margin of 10.5%; Current ratio of 1.96 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.72; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.16); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 185.3%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-153.3% -> +71.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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