HWM · NYSE · STOCK
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Stock Analysis
$225.15
52W $183.83 – $310.00
60/100
$90.12B
48.2
1.20
Is HWM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.09 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.91 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is news sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 29 articles, 14d). The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 34.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 35.2% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 29 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 48.0 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 15.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 33%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 34.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 48.0 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 35.2% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 29 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.0 to 59.9.
- Committee agreement fell modestly from 67% to 60%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst abstained (was bullish at 70).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
41.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.144
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$220.62
Resistance
$267.12
Bollinger %B
0.27
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$226.93
Below
EMA 21
$231.76
Below
EMA 50
$244.50
Below
EMA 200
$244.41
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
28
Growth
77
Profitability
85
Financial Health
85
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
48.2×
P/B Ratio
15.72×
PEG Ratio
1.35
Dividend Yield
0.22%
52W High
$310.00
52W Low
$183.83
Quality & Growth
ROE
2817.1%
ROA
1349.0%
Gross Margin
3524.2%
Operating Margin
2833.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.79
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 48.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 15.7x; PEG ratio of 1.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 28.2%; Return on assets of 13.5%; Net margin of 20.5%; Gross margin of 35.2%; Current ratio of 1.82 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.79; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.92); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 5.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+16.2% -> +9.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 46.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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