IMO · AMEX · STOCK
Imperial Oil (IMO) Stock Analysis
$130.46
52W $83.27 – $139.44
65/100
$66.31B
21.0
0.81
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is IMO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Imperial Oil Limited (IMO) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.28 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.72 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. The main limiting factor is eps declining -6.1% yoy despite any revenue growth. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 17.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.5% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- EPS declining -6.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 18%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 17.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -6.1% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 2 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.7 to 64.7.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
63.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.256
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$118.61
Resistance
$139.35
Bollinger %B
0.71
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$132.09
Below
EMA 21
$131.66
Below
EMA 50
$129.24
Above
EMA 200
$117.74
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
81
Growth
74
Profitability
47
Financial Health
74
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.0×
P/B Ratio
3.71×
PEG Ratio
-13.66
Dividend Yield
1.77%
52W High
$139.44
52W Low
$83.27
Quality & Growth
ROE
1468.5%
ROA
772.4%
Gross Margin
1759.6%
Operating Margin
1005.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.17
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.7x; PEG ratio of -13.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.7%; Return on assets of 7.7%; Net margin of 7.8%; Gross margin of 17.6%; Current ratio of 1.38 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.17; Free cash flow per share is positive (11.47); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-1.5% -> +133.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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