ITW · NYSE · STOCK
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock Analysis
$264.08
52W $238.82 – $303.16
52/100
$75.99B
23.9
0.97
Is ITW Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.52 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.48 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.78) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 101.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 22.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.78 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -3.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.78) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 83%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 101.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 22.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -3.2% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.78) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.2 to 52.5.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
45.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.072
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$254.47
Resistance
$264.52
Bollinger %B
0.33
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$264.71
Below
EMA 21
$267.29
Below
EMA 50
$271.05
Below
EMA 200
$267.93
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
55
Growth
76
Profitability
89
Financial Health
13
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.9×
P/B Ratio
26.14×
PEG Ratio
-7.19
Dividend Yield
2.48%
52W High
$303.16
52W Low
$238.82
Quality & Growth
ROE
9507.0%
ROA
1898.7%
Gross Margin
4416.2%
Operating Margin
2649.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.35
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 26.1x; PEG ratio of -7.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 95.1%; Return on assets of 19.0%; Net margin of 19.4%; Gross margin of 44.2%; Current ratio of 1.11 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.35; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.20); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.6%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-2.2% -> +6.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 10.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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