LPX · NYSE · STOCK
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Stock Analysis
$66.91
52W $64.49 – $100.34
50/100
$4.54B
82.3
1.59
Is LPX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.32 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.68 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.29 across 7 articles, 14d). Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -14.3% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.29 across 7 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 84.2 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 3.1% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -14.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -81.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 81%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 84.2 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
23
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -14.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
67
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.29 across 7 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.7 to 49.7.
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
32.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.138
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$63.85
Resistance
$65.65
Bollinger %B
0.20
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$66.11
Above
EMA 21
$68.04
Below
EMA 50
$70.70
Below
EMA 200
$76.76
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
61
Growth
42
Profitability
27
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
82.3×
P/B Ratio
2.61×
PEG Ratio
-1.01
Dividend Yield
1.81%
52W High
$100.34
52W Low
$64.49
Quality & Growth
ROE
843.4%
ROA
555.8%
Gross Margin
1803.1%
Operating Margin
372.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.22
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 82.3 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.6x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 8.4%; Return on assets of 5.6%; Net margin of 2.2%; Gross margin of 18.0%; Current ratio of 3.22 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.22; Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.27); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 33.6%; EPS growth decelerating (+1166.7% -> +5.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -59.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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