LUNR · NASDAQ · STOCK
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Stock Analysis
$13.20
52W $7.78 – $46.75
50/100
$2.10B
-14.0
1.86
Is LUNR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.12 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.88 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 116.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 25 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- 5 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 22.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 91%
of 227 Industrials peers
Growth Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 116.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 5 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 22.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 25 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.5 to 49.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
33.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.097
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$11.29
Resistance
$13.67
Bollinger %B
0.07
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$14.22
Below
EMA 21
$14.64
Below
EMA 50
$15.70
Below
EMA 200
$18.06
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
11
Profitability
18
Financial Health
86
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-14.0×
P/B Ratio
-7.54×
PEG Ratio
-0.25
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$46.75
52W Low
$7.78
Quality & Growth
ROE
1113.0%
ROA
-1100.1%
Gross Margin
2726.5%
Operating Margin
-2751.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-1.51
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -14.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -7.5x; PEG ratio of -0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 11.1%; Return on assets of -11.0%; Net margin of -26.7%; Gross margin of 27.3%; Current ratio of 1.66 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -1.51; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.17); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 192.6%; 5 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (-8.7% -> -16.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -31.8%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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