LYB · NYSE · STOCK
LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) Stock Analysis
$60.03
52W $41.58 – $83.94
54/100
$19.38B
-53.6
0.35
Is LYB Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.43 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.57 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.3% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- ROE of only -3.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -11.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 70%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -3.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -11.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.4 to 53.6.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
53.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.144
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$53.16
Resistance
$62.46
Bollinger %B
0.48
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$59.37
Above
EMA 21
$60.21
Below
EMA 50
$61.36
Below
EMA 200
$61.84
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
71
Profitability
0
Financial Health
64
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-53.6×
P/B Ratio
1.82×
PEG Ratio
0.05
Dividend Yield
5.73%
52W High
$83.94
52W Low
$41.58
Quality & Growth
ROE
-737.0%
ROA
-218.5%
Gross Margin
1316.0%
Operating Margin
324.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.33
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -53.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.8x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -7.4%; Return on assets of -2.2%; Net margin of -1.1%; Gross margin of 13.2%; Current ratio of 1.64 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.33; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.70); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 24.7%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+288.5% -> +777.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 593.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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