MGY · NYSE · STOCK
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) Stock Analysis
$24.62
52W $21.07 – $32.76
66/100
$5.95B
10.9
0.70
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MGY Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Buy with a composite score of 66/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +9.38 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -10.62 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 21.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
66/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 10%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.7 to 65.6.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->80 (+22).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.166
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$23.40
Resistance
$25.45
Bollinger %B
0.73
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$24.52
Above
EMA 21
$24.77
Below
EMA 50
$25.44
Below
EMA 200
$26.07
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
97
Growth
86
Profitability
94
Financial Health
57
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.9×
P/B Ratio
2.16×
PEG Ratio
0.53
Dividend Yield
2.63%
52W High
$32.76
52W Low
$21.07
Quality & Growth
ROE
1676.6%
ROA
1120.4%
Gross Margin
5759.0%
Operating Margin
3803.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.8%; Return on assets of 11.2%; Net margin of 28.8%; Gross margin of 57.6%; Current ratio of 0.96 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.18; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.85); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 13.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+45.9% -> +83.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 128.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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