MGY · NYSE · STOCK
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation
$26.00
52W $21.07 – $32.76
63/100
$6.16B
11.3
0.70
Is MGY Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.72 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.28 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. The main limiting factor is price structure making lower highs and lower lows. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 21.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.5% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 32%
of 90 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 14.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.172
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$21.32
Resistance
$26.23
Bollinger %B
0.67
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$25.26
Above
EMA 21
$25.38
Above
EMA 50
$26.15
Below
EMA 200
$26.26
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Profitability
94
Financial Health
57
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.3×
P/B Ratio
2.24×
PEG Ratio
0.55
Dividend Yield
2.54%
52W High
$32.76
52W Low
$21.07
Quality & Growth
ROE
1676.6%
ROA
1120.4%
Gross Margin
5759.0%
Operating Margin
3803.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 11.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of 0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.8%; Return on assets of 11.2%; Net margin of 28.8%; Gross margin of 57.6%; Current ratio of 0.96 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.18; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.85); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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