MP · NYSE · STOCK
MP Materials (MP) Stock Analysis
$49.15
52W $37.81 – $100.25
50/100
$8.90B
-146.3
1.95
Is MP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates MP Materials (MP) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.50 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Technical Analyst remains cautious — price structure making lower highs and lower lows. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 64.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
Bear Case
- ROE of only -2.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 23 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 77%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -2.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 64.7% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 29.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.5 to 50.5.
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.777
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$49.79
Resistance
$51.71
Bollinger %B
0.27
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$50.32
Below
EMA 21
$51.96
Below
EMA 50
$52.82
Below
EMA 200
$54.97
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
84
Growth
52
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-146.3×
P/B Ratio
4.55×
PEG Ratio
-2.56
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$100.25
52W Low
$37.81
Quality & Growth
ROE
-358.9%
ROA
-214.2%
Gross Margin
-456.2%
Operating Margin
-3309.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.48
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -146.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.6x; PEG ratio of -2.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -3.6%; Return on assets of -2.1%; Net margin of -19.9%; Gross margin of -4.6%; Current ratio of 9.51 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.48; Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.83); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 127.3%; EPS growth decelerating (-66.7% -> -133.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 92.3%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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