MSM · NYSE · STOCK
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock Analysis
$130.30
52W $78.80 – $132.55
63/100
$7.38B
31.9
0.81
Is MSM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 5 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.89 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.11 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is news sentiment is positive (+0.29 across 7 articles, 14d). The main limiting factor is 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 16.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.4% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 31.5 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- RSI at 72 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 78 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 16%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 16.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 31.5 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 72 is in overbought territory
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
67
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.29 across 7 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 67.9 to 63.1.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Technical Analyst: score 69->61 (-8); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
73.8
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.530
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.88
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$129.78
Above
EMA 21
$127.00
Above
EMA 50
$123.81
Above
EMA 200
$110.76
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
44
Growth
78
Profitability
59
Financial Health
81
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.9×
P/B Ratio
5.20×
PEG Ratio
1.88
Dividend Yield
2.63%
52W High
$132.55
52W Low
$78.80
Quality & Growth
ROE
1435.9%
ROA
809.6%
Gross Margin
4082.3%
Operating Margin
880.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.39
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 31.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.2x; PEG ratio of 1.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.4%; Return on assets of 8.1%; Net margin of 5.9%; Gross margin of 40.8%; Current ratio of 1.55 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.39; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.94); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.7%; EPS growth accelerating (-17.2% -> +74.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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