MSM · NYSE · STOCK
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock Analysis
$129.49
52W $78.80 – $132.33
64/100
$7.23B
31.3
0.81
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MSM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 5 analysts with 100% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.63 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.37 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is price structure making higher highs and higher lows. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 16.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.4% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 31.3 is moderate-to-rich — Value
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
100%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Unanimous
Sector Rank
Top 9%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 16.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 31.3 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.4 to 64.4.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
65.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.643
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$115.83
Resistance
$130.23
Bollinger %B
0.80
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$128.22
Above
EMA 21
$125.59
Above
EMA 50
$122.86
Above
EMA 200
$110.13
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
46
Growth
78
Profitability
59
Financial Health
81
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.3×
P/B Ratio
5.09×
PEG Ratio
1.85
Dividend Yield
2.69%
52W High
$132.33
52W Low
$78.80
Quality & Growth
ROE
1435.9%
ROA
809.6%
Gross Margin
4082.3%
Operating Margin
880.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.39
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 31.3 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.1x; PEG ratio of 1.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.4%; Return on assets of 8.1%; Net margin of 5.9%; Gross margin of 40.8%; Current ratio of 1.55 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.39; Free cash flow per share is positive (3.94); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.7%; EPS growth accelerating (-17.2% -> +74.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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