MUR · NYSE · STOCK
Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock Analysis
$38.67
52W $26.49 – $43.34
65/100
$5.54B
18.9
0.49
Is MUR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Murphy Oil (MUR) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +9.99 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -10.01 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.6% pays you to wait — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Current ratio of 0.77 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 8%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.77 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 65.0 to 65.0.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
61.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.144
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$38.12
Resistance
$39.41
Bollinger %B
0.77
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$37.83
Above
EMA 21
$37.47
Above
EMA 50
$37.09
Above
EMA 200
$35.51
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
62
Growth
95
Profitability
42
Financial Health
52
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
18.9×
P/B Ratio
1.05×
PEG Ratio
3.68
Dividend Yield
3.55%
52W High
$43.34
52W Low
$26.49
Quality & Growth
ROE
203.6%
ROA
106.0%
Gross Margin
8232.6%
Operating Margin
1841.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.43
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 18.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of 3.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.0%; Return on assets of 1.1%; Net margin of 9.7%; Gross margin of 82.3%; Current ratio of 0.85 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.43; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.30); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.1%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+128.6% -> +384.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 474.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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