MUR · NASDAQ · STOCK
Murphy Oil
$34.04
52W $21.86 – $43.34
62/100
$4.78B
16.3
0.50
Is MUR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Murphy Oil (MUR) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 09, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.22 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.78 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value. The main limiting factor is macd histogram negative -- bearish momentum. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 4.2% pays you to wait — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.77 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 21.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 09, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 40%
of 40 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.77 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 30 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 55.4 to 61.8.
- Recommendation changed from Watch to Buy.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 50->68 (+18).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 50->70 (+20).
Comparing 2026-08-08 to 2026-08-09 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
30.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.498
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$33.05
Resistance
$33.82
Bollinger %B
0.06
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$36.16
Below
EMA 21
$36.47
Below
EMA 50
$36.53
Below
EMA 200
$34.69
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
65
Growth
95
Profitability
42
Financial Health
52
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.3×
P/B Ratio
0.91×
PEG Ratio
3.17
Dividend Yield
4.05%
52W High
$43.34
52W Low
$21.86
Quality & Growth
ROE
203.6%
ROA
106.0%
Gross Margin
8232.6%
Operating Margin
1841.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.43
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.9x; PEG ratio of 3.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.0%; Return on assets of 1.1%; Net margin of 9.7%; Gross margin of 82.3%; Current ratio of 0.85 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.43; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.68); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.1%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+128.6% -> +384.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 474.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full MUR Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →