NFG · NYSE · STOCK
National Fuel Gas (NFG) Stock Analysis
$78.73
52W $75.03 – $97.06
57/100
$7.48B
10.8
0.41
Is NFG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates National Fuel Gas (NFG) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.57 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.43 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 11.1 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.1 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 18.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.9% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 98.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 169.0% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.44 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 55%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.1 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 98.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.44 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.4 to 57.4.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
55.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.137
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$77.90
Resistance
$80.05
Bollinger %B
0.51
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$77.94
Above
EMA 21
$78.78
Below
EMA 50
$80.00
Below
EMA 200
$81.84
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
40
Profitability
79
Financial Health
90
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.8×
P/B Ratio
1.88×
PEG Ratio
0.07
Dividend Yield
2.77%
52W High
$97.06
52W Low
$75.03
Quality & Growth
ROE
1675.5%
ROA
594.7%
Gross Margin
4900.4%
Operating Margin
4041.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.91
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.9x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.8%; Return on assets of 5.9%; Net margin of 27.0%; Gross margin of 49.0%; Current ratio of 3.20 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.91; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.37); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.6%; EPS growth decelerating (+31.6% -> -43.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -6.1%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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