NOG · NYSE · STOCK
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
$24.26
52W $17.18 – $31.17
56/100
$2.64B
-4.8
0.73
Is NOG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 4 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.06 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.94 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 21.4% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- RSI at 78 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 21.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 71%
of 90 Energy peers
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 78 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 21.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
77.6
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.328
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$22.75
Resistance
$25.67
Bollinger %B
1.18
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$21.86
Above
EMA 21
$21.14
Above
EMA 50
$21.23
Above
EMA 200
$23.65
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Profitability
13
Financial Health
28
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-4.8×
P/B Ratio
1.29×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
7.42%
52W High
$31.17
52W Low
$17.18
Quality & Growth
ROE
182.3%
ROA
71.7%
Gross Margin
3445.1%
Operating Margin
3200.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.37
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of -4.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 1.8%; Return on assets of 0.7%; Net margin of -21.8%; Gross margin of 34.5%; Current ratio of 0.80 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.37; Free cash flow per share is negative (-4.33); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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