NOG · NYSE · STOCK
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Stock Analysis
$24.75
52W $17.18 – $31.17
54/100
$2.69B
-4.9
0.75
Is NOG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.54 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.46 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 4.3% pays you to wait — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- ROE of only -23.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -25.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 19.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -23.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -25.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 19.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.5 to 54.5.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
60.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.126
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$22.75
Resistance
$25.67
Bollinger %B
0.62
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$24.22
Above
EMA 21
$24.28
Above
EMA 50
$24.07
Above
EMA 200
$24.12
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
94
Profitability
13
Financial Health
28
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-4.9×
P/B Ratio
1.31×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
7.27%
52W High
$31.17
52W Low
$17.18
Quality & Growth
ROE
182.3%
ROA
71.7%
Gross Margin
3445.1%
Operating Margin
3200.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.37
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -4.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 1.8%; Return on assets of 0.7%; Net margin of -21.8%; Gross margin of 34.5%; Current ratio of 0.80 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.37; Free cash flow per share is negative (-7.92); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.7%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-10.8% -> +52.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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