NSC · NYSE · STOCK
Norfolk Southern (NSC) Stock Analysis
$352.99
52W $268.23 – $358.60
54/100
$79.28B
30.1
1.27
Is NSC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Norfolk Southern (NSC) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.11 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.89 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.85 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 16.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.5% pays you to wait — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 28.8 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 4.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -20.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 73 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.85 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 73%
of 226 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 16.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 28.8 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -20.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 73 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.85 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.9 to 53.9.
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
75.0
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.914
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$297.54
Resistance
$358.11
Bollinger %B
1.09
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$344.85
Above
EMA 21
$340.23
Above
EMA 50
$331.77
Above
EMA 200
$308.43
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
62
Growth
83
Profitability
85
Financial Health
38
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
30.1×
P/B Ratio
4.89×
PEG Ratio
-1.44
Dividend Yield
1.53%
52W High
$358.60
52W Low
$268.23
Quality & Growth
ROE
1847.9%
ROA
635.1%
Gross Margin
5369.2%
Operating Margin
3163.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.02
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 30.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.9x; PEG ratio of -1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 18.5%; Return on assets of 6.4%; Net margin of 21.0%; Gross margin of 53.7%; Current ratio of 0.83 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.02; Free cash flow per share is positive (17.04); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 5.3%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-17.7% -> +32.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 7.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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