NXST · NASDAQ · STOCK
Nexstar Media Group (NXST) Stock Analysis
$161.38
52W $153.17 – $254.30
51/100
$4.93B
28.6
0.93
Is NXST Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Nexstar Media Group (NXST) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.30 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.70 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.07) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 3.6% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 26.3 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.07 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -70.4% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.07) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 81%
of 55 Communication Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
43
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 3.6% pays you to wait
− P/E of 26.3 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -70.4% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.07) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.7 to 50.7.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
50.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.696
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$157.86
Resistance
$162.38
Bollinger %B
0.46
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$160.12
Above
EMA 21
$163.35
Below
EMA 50
$170.63
Below
EMA 200
$185.47
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
78
Growth
82
Profitability
33
Financial Health
32
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.6×
P/B Ratio
2.18×
PEG Ratio
-0.40
Dividend Yield
4.61%
52W High
$254.30
52W Low
$153.17
Quality & Growth
ROE
528.1%
ROA
99.2%
Gross Margin
5219.0%
Operating Margin
1519.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
5.34
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 28.6 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of -0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 5.3%; Return on assets of 1.0%; Net margin of 2.7%; Gross margin of 52.2%; Current ratio of 1.56 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 5.34; Free cash flow per share is positive (24.27); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 14.5%; EPS growth accelerating (-23.2% -> +10.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 59.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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