ODFL · NASDAQ · STOCK
Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Stock Analysis
$181.96
52W $126.01 – $252.03
62/100
$37.84B
35.0
1.20
Is ODFL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.50 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 24.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 23 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 34.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Revenue declining -0.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 22%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 24.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 34.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -0.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.01) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 23 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.5 to 61.5.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.763
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$176.10
Resistance
$221.53
Bollinger %B
0.89
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$179.00
Above
EMA 21
$180.50
Above
EMA 50
$190.11
Below
EMA 200
$194.47
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
7
Growth
88
Profitability
82
Financial Health
95
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
35.0×
P/B Ratio
8.35×
PEG Ratio
29.98
Dividend Yield
0.63%
52W High
$252.03
52W Low
$126.01
Quality & Growth
ROE
2374.6%
ROA
1832.0%
Gross Margin
3169.8%
Operating Margin
2584.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 35.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.4x; PEG ratio of 30.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 23.7%; Return on assets of 18.3%; Net margin of 19.4%; Gross margin of 31.7%; Current ratio of 1.89 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.34); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.0%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+4.6% -> +47.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 32.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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