ONTO · NASDAQ · STOCK
Onto Innovation
$307.92
52W $101.00 – $386.46
59/100
$15.34B
114.6
1.54
Is ONTO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Onto Innovation (ONTO) Watch with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.78 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.22 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.60 across 41 articles, 14d). Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 144.1 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.63 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.60 across 41 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 144.1 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 4.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -51.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 35.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 48%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 144.1 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -51.2% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 35.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.60 across 41 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.2 to 59.2.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->62 (+4); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
63.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
3.605
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$238.55
Resistance
$315.49
Bollinger %B
0.80
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$276.94
Above
EMA 21
$280.62
Above
EMA 50
$284.87
Above
EMA 200
$237.21
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
34
Growth
79
Profitability
56
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
114.6×
P/B Ratio
7.92×
PEG Ratio
-3.41
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$386.46
52W Low
$101.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
651.0%
ROA
577.6%
Gross Margin
5035.6%
Operating Margin
1248.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 114.6 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.9x; PEG ratio of -3.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.5%; Return on assets of 5.8%; Net margin of 11.8%; Gross margin of 50.4%; Current ratio of 9.73 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.57); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.9%; EPS growth accelerating (+12.7% -> +35.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 54.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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