ONTO · NYSE · STOCK
Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Analysis
$268.14
52W $101.06 – $386.46
54/100
$12.56B
94.2
1.59
Is ONTO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Onto Innovation (ONTO) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 05, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.66 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.34 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.47 across 22 articles, 14d). Technical Analyst remains cautious — rsi at 26 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.47 across 22 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 93.1 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 4.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -33.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 26 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 38.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 05, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 77%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 93.1 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -33.9% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 26 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 38.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
73
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.47 across 22 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3059.07)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.3 to 54.3.
Comparing 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-05 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
26.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-6.218
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$238.55
Resistance
$315.49
Bollinger %B
0.11
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$271.13
Below
EMA 21
$283.50
Below
EMA 50
$288.30
Below
EMA 200
$247.27
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
41
Growth
79
Profitability
56
Financial Health
93
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
94.2×
P/B Ratio
6.49×
PEG Ratio
-2.78
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$386.46
52W Low
$101.06
Quality & Growth
ROE
651.0%
ROA
577.6%
Gross Margin
5035.6%
Operating Margin
1248.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.77
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 94.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.5x; PEG ratio of -2.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.5%; Return on assets of 5.8%; Net margin of 11.8%; Gross margin of 50.4%; Current ratio of 9.73 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.77; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.11); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.4%; EPS growth accelerating (+12.7% -> +35.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 54.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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