SHOP · NASDAQ · STOCK
Shopify (SHOP) Stock Analysis
$149.79
52W $94.00 – $182.19
60/100
$193.67B
100.2
2.58
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is SHOP Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 24, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.03 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.97 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. The main limiting factor is p/e of 103.2 is expensive by classic value standards. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 32.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 103.2 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 15.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -17.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 39.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 24, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 32%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 15.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 103.2 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 32.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -17.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 39.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 53 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.0 to 60.0.
Comparing 2026-08-23 to 2026-08-24 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.342
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$136.25
Resistance
$156.73
Bollinger %B
0.65
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$147.82
Above
EMA 21
$141.49
Above
EMA 50
$131.42
Above
EMA 200
$127.07
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
73
Profitability
67
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
100.2×
P/B Ratio
15.24×
PEG Ratio
-5.67
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$182.19
52W Low
$94.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
913.7%
ROA
810.4%
Gross Margin
4776.6%
Operating Margin
1389.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.01
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 100.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 15.2x; PEG ratio of -5.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.1%; Return on assets of 8.1%; Net margin of 14.5%; Gross margin of 47.8%; Current ratio of 5.35 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.01; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.82); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.5%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-25.0% -> +16.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 20.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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