SHOP · NASDAQ · STOCK
Shopify (SHOP) Stock Analysis
$170.83
52W $94.00 – $182.19
60/100
$221.70B
114.7
2.62
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is SHOP Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.39 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.61 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 32.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 112.7 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 15.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -17.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 83 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 36.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 43%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 15.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 112.7 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 32.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -17.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 83 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 36.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.6 to 59.6.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
83.4
Overbought
MACD Histogram
2.895
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$136.25
Resistance
$172.91
Bollinger %B
0.96
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$159.46
Above
EMA 21
$151.23
Above
EMA 50
$143.26
Above
EMA 200
$132.38
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
73
Profitability
67
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
114.7×
P/B Ratio
17.45×
PEG Ratio
-6.49
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$182.19
52W Low
$94.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
913.7%
ROA
810.4%
Gross Margin
4776.6%
Operating Margin
1389.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.01
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 114.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 17.4x; PEG ratio of -6.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.1%; Return on assets of 8.1%; Net margin of 14.5%; Gross margin of 47.8%; Current ratio of 5.35 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.01; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.82); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.5%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-25.0% -> +16.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 20.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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