PBR · NYSE · STOCK
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Stock Analysis
$25.30
52W $11.43 – $25.60
64/100
$163.04B
5.7
-0.22
Is PBR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.35 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.65 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 5.7 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 5.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 30.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 9.4% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 72.4% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- RSI at 86 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 81 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.71 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 29.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 18%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 5.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 72.4% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 86 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.71 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 41 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.6 to 63.6.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
86.0
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.381
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
1.05
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$23.38
Above
EMA 21
$22.09
Above
EMA 50
$20.69
Above
EMA 200
$18.23
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
85
Profitability
90
Financial Health
46
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.7×
P/B Ratio
1.56×
PEG Ratio
0.07
Dividend Yield
6.52%
52W High
$25.60
52W Low
$11.43
Quality & Growth
ROE
2597.7%
ROA
882.9%
Gross Margin
4925.0%
Operating Margin
3279.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.76
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 5.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 26.0%; Return on assets of 8.8%; Net margin of 24.5%; Gross margin of 49.2%; Current ratio of 0.85 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.76; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.87); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 18.5%; EPS growth accelerating (-6.4% -> +134.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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