PYPL · NASDAQ · STOCK
PayPal Holdings
$59.05
52W $38.46 – $79.22
49/100
$50.53B
11.1
1.33
Is PYPL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates PayPal Holdings (PYPL) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.27 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.73 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Growth Analyst remains cautious — growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 81 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 22.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 98%
of 142 Financial Services peers
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 22.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 46.7 to 48.7.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell sharply from 60% to 40%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.097
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$58.01
Resistance
$79.20
Bollinger %B
0.72
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$58.04
Above
EMA 21
$55.38
Above
EMA 50
$51.26
Above
EMA 200
$52.68
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
94
Growth
56
Profitability
75
Financial Health
65
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.1×
P/B Ratio
2.67×
PEG Ratio
0.87
Dividend Yield
0.71%
52W High
$79.22
52W Low
$38.46
Quality & Growth
ROE
2583.4%
ROA
652.7%
Gross Margin
4575.4%
Operating Margin
1877.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.72
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.7x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 25.8%; Return on assets of 6.5%; Net margin of 14.4%; Gross margin of 45.8%; Current ratio of 1.29 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.72; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.36); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 5.9%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+8.9% -> +3.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -1.4%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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