RCAT · NASDAQ · STOCK
Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) Stock Analysis
$7.09
52W $5.77 – $18.78
57/100
$1.21B
-9.3
1.35
Is RCAT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.29 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.71 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Technical Analyst remains cautious — price structure making lower highs and lower lows. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 742.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.02) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 19 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- ROE of only -36.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 52%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -36.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 742.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.02) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 31.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 19 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.7 to 56.7.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
37.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.103
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$6.71
Resistance
$11.66
Bollinger %B
0.22
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$8.19
Below
EMA 21
$8.56
Below
EMA 50
$9.05
Below
EMA 200
$10.26
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
27
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-9.3×
P/B Ratio
2.31×
PEG Ratio
0.97
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$18.78
52W Low
$5.77
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2931.9%
ROA
-2633.6%
Gross Margin
863.7%
Operating Margin
-16114.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.05
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -9.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.3x; PEG ratio of 1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -29.3%; Return on assets of -26.3%; Net margin of -164.6%; Gross margin of 8.6%; Current ratio of 14.86 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.05; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.92); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 21.4%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-29.4% -> -18.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Get the Full RCAT Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →