RDW · NYSE · STOCK
Redwire (RDW) Stock Analysis
$9.56
52W $4.87 – $26.64
57/100
$2.29B
-6.6
3.13
Is RDW Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Redwire Corp (RDW) Buy with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.57 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.43 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Revenue growing 63.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.08) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- ROE of only -19.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 28 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 49%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -19.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 63.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.08) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 22.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.7 to 57.4.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 49->41 (-8); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
27.9
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.146
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$8.31
Resistance
$11.83
Bollinger %B
-0.01
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$10.31
Below
EMA 21
$10.67
Below
EMA 50
$11.02
Below
EMA 200
$11.29
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
44
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-6.6×
P/B Ratio
1.30×
PEG Ratio
-0.11
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$26.64
52W Low
$4.87
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2137.2%
ROA
-1563.4%
Gross Margin
2009.5%
Operating Margin
-5028.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.05
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -6.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of -0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -21.4%; Return on assets of -15.6%; Net margin of -57.3%; Gross margin of 20.1%; Current ratio of 3.92 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.05; Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.47); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 16.6%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (+31.0% -> +52.5% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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