RGLD · NASDAQ · STOCK
Royal Gold (RGLD) Stock Analysis
$252.68
52W $168.88 – $306.25
64/100
$21.23B
27.3
0.50
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is RGLD Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Royal Gold (RGLD) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.42 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.58 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.13) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. The main limiting factor is p/e of 28.4 is moderate-to-rich. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 93.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 34.3% YoY — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.13) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 16 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 28.4 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 10%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 28.4 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 93.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.13) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 16 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.6 to 63.6.
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
45.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-2.959
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$214.06
Resistance
$275.46
Bollinger %B
0.23
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$251.75
Above
EMA 21
$250.58
Above
EMA 50
$239.59
Above
EMA 200
$227.10
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
77
Growth
43
Profitability
70
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.3×
P/B Ratio
2.79×
PEG Ratio
0.80
Dividend Yield
0.75%
52W High
$306.25
52W Low
$168.88
Quality & Growth
ROE
651.5%
ROA
488.9%
Gross Margin
6679.0%
Operating Margin
6313.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.05
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.3 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.8x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.5%; Return on assets of 4.9%; Net margin of 47.7%; Gross margin of 66.8%; Current ratio of 2.92 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.05; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.01); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 6.9%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+41.7% -> -5.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 41.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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