RUN · NASDAQ · STOCK
Sunrun (RUN) Stock Analysis
$7.65
52W $7.26 – $22.44
56/100
$1.82B
4.5
2.44
Is RUN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.79 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.21 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is revenue growing 63.2% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 4.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Revenue growing 63.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 4.71 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 18 -- oversold on the larger timeframe too — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 62%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 4.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 4.71 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
67
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 63.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.71) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.6 to 56.2.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.019
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$5.46
Resistance
$13.22
Bollinger %B
0.28
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$7.73
Below
EMA 21
$8.06
Below
EMA 50
$8.95
Below
EMA 200
$11.90
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
69
Profitability
35
Financial Health
26
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
4.5×
P/B Ratio
0.52×
PEG Ratio
0.04
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$22.44
52W Low
$7.26
Quality & Growth
ROE
1436.4%
ROA
186.1%
Gross Margin
3453.7%
Operating Margin
265.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.36
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 4.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.5x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.4%; Return on assets of 1.9%; Net margin of 2.3%; Gross margin of 34.5%; Current ratio of 1.42 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.36; Free cash flow per share is negative (-5.70); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 81.4%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+63.2% -> -32.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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