SAP · NYSE · STOCK
SAP SE (SAP) Stock Analysis
$214.78
52W $144.97 – $281.37
58/100
$250.27B
28.0
0.78
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is SAP Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates SAP SE (SAP) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.78 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.22 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 17.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 27.6 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 53%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 17.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 27.6 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.9 to 58.2.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
65.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.058
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$195.55
Resistance
$223.23
Bollinger %B
0.83
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$211.23
Above
EMA 21
$210.67
Above
EMA 50
$204.89
Above
EMA 200
$202.24
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
61
Growth
46
Profitability
95
Financial Health
64
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.0×
P/B Ratio
4.93×
PEG Ratio
1.24
Dividend Yield
1.31%
52W High
$281.37
52W Low
$144.97
Quality & Growth
ROE
1600.2%
ROA
1017.7%
Gross Margin
7275.7%
Operating Margin
2674.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 28.0 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.9x; PEG ratio of 1.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.0%; Return on assets of 10.2%; Net margin of 20.4%; Gross margin of 72.8%; Current ratio of 1.15 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.57); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 11.1%; EPS growth decelerating (+6.2% -> -7.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 6.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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