SM · NYSE · STOCK
SM Energy (SM) Stock Analysis
$37.71
52W $17.45 – $41.56
59/100
$9.24B
10.0
0.75
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is SM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates SM Energy Company (SM) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.91 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.09 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 9.1 is inexpensive for the broad market. Risk Analyst remains cautious — current ratio of 0.69 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 9.1 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 16.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 67.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- EPS declining -28.4% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 76 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.69 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.3% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 52%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 9.1 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 67.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -28.4% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 76 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.69 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 19 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 63.9 to 59.1.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 47->35 (-12); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
70.7
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.388
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$25.50
Resistance
$41.56
Bollinger %B
0.91
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$36.92
Above
EMA 21
$36.25
Above
EMA 50
$35.25
Above
EMA 200
$30.81
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
64
Profitability
82
Financial Health
40
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.0×
P/B Ratio
1.18×
PEG Ratio
-0.22
Dividend Yield
2.23%
52W High
$41.56
52W Low
$17.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
1347.2%
ROA
700.3%
Gross Margin
6149.4%
Operating Margin
2630.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.90
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of -0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.5%; Return on assets of 7.0%; Net margin of 18.2%; Gross margin of 61.5%; Current ratio of 0.62 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.90; Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.16); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 15.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+86.7% -> +41.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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