SMCI · NASDAQ · STOCK
Supermicro (SMCI) Stock Analysis
$39.61
52W $19.48 – $58.78
62/100
$24.50B
10.4
1.97
Is SMCI Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Supermicro (SMCI) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 05, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.96 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.04 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 77.8% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 26.9% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.2 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.3x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 25.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 77.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 94.1% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 26.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 05, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 22%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.2 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
84
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 77.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 26.9% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3059.07)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.0 to 62.0.
Comparing 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-05 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
58.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.193
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$27.77
Resistance
$51.35
Bollinger %B
0.63
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$37.19
Above
EMA 21
$35.85
Above
EMA 50
$33.73
Above
EMA 200
$34.33
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
94
Profitability
45
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.4×
P/B Ratio
1.57×
PEG Ratio
0.05
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$58.78
52W Low
$19.48
Quality & Growth
ROE
1540.4%
ROA
744.8%
Gross Margin
1082.2%
Operating Margin
709.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.46
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 15.4%; Return on assets of 7.4%; Net margin of 5.7%; Gross margin of 10.8%; Current ratio of 3.87 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.46; Free cash flow per share is negative (-11.58); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 74.1%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+21.7% -> +102.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 314.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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