SMG · NYSE · STOCK
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Stock Analysis
$52.66
52W $51.11 – $75.34
45/100
$2.99B
41.1
1.81
Is SMG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) Watch with a composite score of 45/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +15.08 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -4.92 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 40.8 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 4.7% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 43.6% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 40.8 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 16.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -109.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 20.11 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -1.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
45/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 98%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
bearish
29
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ Dividend yield of 4.7% pays you to wait
− P/E of 40.8 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 43.6% YoY
− Revenue declining -1.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 20.11) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− Negative filing: Termination of a material agreement (6d ago)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 44.9 to 44.9.
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
10.7
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.473
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$49.14
Resistance
$59.48
Bollinger %B
-0.01
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$54.66
Below
EMA 21
$57.23
Below
EMA 50
$60.28
Below
EMA 200
$62.13
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
65
Profitability
24
Financial Health
67
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
41.1×
P/B Ratio
-14.31×
PEG Ratio
0.91
Dividend Yield
5.13%
52W High
$75.34
52W Low
$51.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
-4061.5%
ROA
529.5%
Gross Margin
3227.0%
Operating Margin
1229.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-10.13
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 41.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -14.3x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -40.6%; Return on assets of 5.3%; Net margin of 2.2%; Gross margin of 32.3%; Current ratio of 1.21 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -10.13; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.62); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 12.1%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+688.3% -> -37.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full SMG Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →