STLD · NASDAQ · STOCK
Steel Dynamics (STLD) Stock Analysis
$258.25
52W $124.77 – $288.74
57/100
$36.66B
23.1
1.53
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is STLD Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Steel Dynamics (STLD) Buy with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 18, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +18.31 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -1.69 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Growth Analyst remains cautious — growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.22 across 9 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 18, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 72%
of 95 Basic Materials peers
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.22 across 9 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 62.5 to 56.7.
- Committee agreement fell sharply from 83% to 60%.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance bullish->bearish; score 62->35 (-27).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bullish at 65).
Comparing 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
45.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.072
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$216.53
Resistance
$288.03
Bollinger %B
0.54
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$260.00
Below
EMA 21
$254.99
Above
EMA 50
$247.49
Above
EMA 200
$210.35
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
77
Growth
59
Profitability
44
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.1×
P/B Ratio
3.92×
PEG Ratio
0.38
Dividend Yield
0.81%
52W High
$288.74
52W Low
$124.77
Quality & Growth
ROE
1323.6%
ROA
722.4%
Gross Margin
1461.7%
Operating Margin
1057.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.44
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.9x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.2%; Return on assets of 7.2%; Net margin of 7.8%; Gross margin of 14.6%; Current ratio of 3.18 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.44; Free cash flow per share is positive (6.62); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.7%; EPS growth decelerating (+52.7% -> +37.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 89.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full STLD Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →