TALO · NYSE · STOCK
Talos Energy (TALO) Stock Analysis
$16.80
52W $8.96 – $18.73
58/100
$2.80B
-7.2
0.36
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TALO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Talos Energy Inc. (TALO) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.33 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.67 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- ROE of only -19.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 53%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -19.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.6 to 57.7.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 62->58 (-5).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
50.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.018
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$12.98
Resistance
$17.00
Bollinger %B
0.48
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$16.76
Above
EMA 21
$16.77
Above
EMA 50
$16.41
Above
EMA 200
$14.50
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
89
Profitability
7
Financial Health
81
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-7.2×
P/B Ratio
1.38×
PEG Ratio
0.07
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$18.73
52W Low
$8.96
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2289.5%
ROA
-894.0%
Gross Margin
3080.0%
Operating Margin
323.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.61
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -7.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.4x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -22.9%; Return on assets of -8.9%; Net margin of -20.6%; Gross margin of 30.8%; Current ratio of 1.61 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.61; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.98); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 108.1%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+84.1% -> +914.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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