TDG · NYSE · STOCK
TransDigm Group (TDG) Stock Analysis
$1,107.92
52W $1071.25 – $1463.03
57/100
$61.97B
33.6
0.94
Is TDG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates TransDigm Group (TDG) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.82 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.18 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.29 across 14 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 37.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.29 across 14 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 28.6 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 6.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.97 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 53%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 37.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 28.6 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.97) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
67
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.29 across 14 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 54.1 to 57.2.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 30->50 (+20).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
54.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
4.622
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Bollinger %B
0.71
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,098.76
Above
EMA 21
$1,109.88
Below
EMA 50
$1,148.32
Below
EMA 200
$1,238.34
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
42
Growth
66
Profitability
72
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
33.6×
P/B Ratio
-6.48×
PEG Ratio
3.57
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$1463.03
52W Low
$1071.25
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2141.2%
ROA
905.3%
Gross Margin
5956.8%
Operating Margin
4618.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-3.41
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 33.6 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -6.5x; PEG ratio of 3.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -21.4%; Return on assets of 9.1%; Net margin of 21.3%; Gross margin of 59.6%; Current ratio of 3.02 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -3.41; Free cash flow per share is positive (33.57); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.5%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+19.7% -> +10.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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