TKR · NYSE · STOCK
Timken (TKR) Stock Analysis
$116.19
52W $71.39 – $146.37
56/100
$8.07B
31.3
1.18
Is TKR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Timken (TKR) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.35 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.65 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 31.0 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -16.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 62%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 31.0 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -16.1% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.6 to 55.6.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.209
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$94.26
Resistance
$146.28
Bollinger %B
0.37
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$117.13
Below
EMA 21
$118.24
Below
EMA 50
$121.79
Below
EMA 200
$115.02
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
73
Growth
73
Profitability
34
Financial Health
96
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.3×
P/B Ratio
2.53×
PEG Ratio
-1.90
Dividend Yield
1.22%
52W High
$146.37
52W Low
$71.39
Quality & Growth
ROE
905.6%
ROA
431.9%
Gross Margin
2867.3%
Operating Margin
1119.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 31.3 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of -1.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.1%; Return on assets of 4.3%; Net margin of 5.4%; Gross margin of 28.7%; Current ratio of 3.10 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.65; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.55); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.8%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+46.5% -> +9.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 28.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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