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TPL · NYSE · STOCK

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Stock Analysis

Energy Updated September 06, 2026
$362.05
52W $269.23 – $547.20
62/100
$25.00B
46.2
0.62
AI Committee Verdict
Buy
62/100
Conviction: Contested · 50% agreement · 6 analysts
+22.3%
-3.7%
6.02:1
Contested

Is TPL Bullish or Bearish?

Bullish. Innellis AI committee rates Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Buy with a composite score of 62/100 , based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement. Last updated September 06, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Strong Buy
Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +12.92 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Watch
Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -7.08 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • ROE of 35.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
  • 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
  • MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
  • Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
  • VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
  • P/E of 46.2 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
  • Price-to-book of 13.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
  • Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
  • Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
  • Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
  • Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 49%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst neutral
49 / 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 35.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 46.2 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst bullish
60 / 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst neutral
46 / 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst bullish
80 / 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst bullish
80 / 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst neutral
58 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score moved marginally from 62.1 to 62.1.

Analyst-level changes:
  • Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).

Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
40.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.813
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$348.64
Resistance
$442.65
Bollinger %B
0.42
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$367.46 Below
EMA 21
$370.87 Below
EMA 50
$380.87 Below
EMA 200
$385.35 Below

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
6
Growth
40
Profitability
100
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio 46.2×
P/B Ratio 14.95×
PEG Ratio 2.66
Dividend Yield 0.64%
52W High $547.20
52W Low $269.23
Quality & Growth
ROE 3299.6%
ROA 2965.5%
Gross Margin 10031.7%
Operating Margin 7492.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 0.01
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 46.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 14.9x; PEG ratio of 2.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 33.0%; Return on assets of 29.7%; Net margin of 60.3%; Gross margin of 100.3%; Current ratio of 4.55 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.01; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.64); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.0%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+15.0% -> +7.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -55.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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