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TPL · NYSE · STOCK

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Stock Analysis

Energy Updated September 21, 2026
$347.38
52W $269.23 – $547.20
59/100
$24.33B
44.9
0.62
AI Committee Verdict
Buy
59/100
Conviction: Contested · 50% agreement · 6 analysts
+25.5%
-1.1%
22.17:1
Contested

Is TPL Bullish or Bearish?

Bullish. Innellis AI committee rates Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Buy with a composite score of 59/100 , based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement. Last updated September 21, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Strong Buy
Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.30 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Watch
Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.70 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Technical Analyst remains cautious — price structure making lower highs and lower lows. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • ROE of 35.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
  • 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
  • Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
  • P/E of 44.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
  • Price-to-book of 13.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
  • Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
  • Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
  • MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
  • Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of September 21, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 48%
of 93 Energy peers
Value Analyst neutral
49 / 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 35.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 44.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst bullish
60 / 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst bearish
39 / 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst bullish
80 / 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst bullish
65 / 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst neutral
60 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2518.64)
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score moved marginally from 58.7 to 58.7.

Comparing 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-21 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
39.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.414
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$348.64
Resistance
$442.65
Bollinger %B
0.11
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$359.92 Below
EMA 21
$365.56 Below
EMA 50
$375.48 Below
EMA 200
$383.50 Below

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
7
Growth
40
Profitability
100
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio 44.9×
P/B Ratio 14.55×
PEG Ratio 2.59
Dividend Yield 0.66%
52W High $547.20
52W Low $269.23
Quality & Growth
ROE 3299.6%
ROA 2965.5%
Gross Margin 10031.7%
Operating Margin 7492.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 0.01
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 44.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 14.5x; PEG ratio of 2.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 33.0%; Return on assets of 29.7%; Net margin of 60.3%; Gross margin of 100.3%; Current ratio of 4.55 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.01; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.64); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.0%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+15.0% -> +7.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -55.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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