VSEC · NASDAQ · STOCK
VSE (VSEC) Stock Analysis
$173.66
52W $154.76 – $247.85
61/100
$4.87B
63.1
1.27
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is VSEC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates VSE Corporation (VSEC) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.22 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.78 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 174.8% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- EPS growing 174.8% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 5 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 63.7 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 3.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 28%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 63.7 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 174.8% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.40 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.8 to 60.8.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.081
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$164.56
Resistance
$174.24
Bollinger %B
0.47
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$170.77
Above
EMA 21
$177.48
Below
EMA 50
$189.61
Below
EMA 200
$191.04
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
65
Growth
94
Profitability
18
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
63.1×
P/B Ratio
1.83×
PEG Ratio
0.88
Dividend Yield
0.23%
52W High
$247.85
52W Low
$154.76
Quality & Growth
ROE
371.8%
ROA
263.7%
Gross Margin
1397.0%
Operating Margin
1116.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.35
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 63.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.8x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 3.7%; Return on assets of 2.6%; Net margin of 5.5%; Gross margin of 14.0%; Current ratio of 3.77 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.35; Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.04); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 84.8%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+0.9% -> +49.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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