WMG · NASDAQ · STOCK
Warner Music Group (WMG) Stock Analysis
$28.71
52W $23.34 – $35.42
58/100
$14.99B
22.3
1.40
Is WMG Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Warner Music Group (WMG) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.70 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.30 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 123.9% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 90.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.7% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 123.9% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 27.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 6.75 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 6.75) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.66 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 36%
of 55 Communication Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 90.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 27.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 123.9% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 6.75) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.4 to 58.3.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.132
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$28.59
Resistance
$29.66
Bollinger %B
0.81
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$28.02
Above
EMA 21
$27.83
Above
EMA 50
$27.79
Above
EMA 200
$28.58
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
57
Growth
58
Profitability
62
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.3×
P/B Ratio
17.54×
PEG Ratio
0.18
Dividend Yield
2.68%
52W High
$35.42
52W Low
$23.34
Quality & Growth
ROE
5641.4%
ROA
371.3%
Gross Margin
4576.9%
Operating Margin
1430.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
5.76
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 17.5x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 56.4%; Return on assets of 3.7%; Net margin of 9.2%; Gross margin of 45.8%; Current ratio of 0.73 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 5.76; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.56); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 13.0%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+3.0% -> +14.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 1400.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Get the Full WMG Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →