WMS · NYSE · STOCK
Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) Stock Analysis
$129.43
52W $124.75 – $179.31
61/100
$9.72B
21.8
1.28
Is WMS Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.23 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.77 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 23.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 27%
of 99 Basic Materials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 23.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2517.06)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.8 to 60.8.
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
36.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.344
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$126.84
Resistance
$128.07
Bollinger %B
0.26
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$127.96
Above
EMA 21
$132.09
Below
EMA 50
$137.30
Below
EMA 200
$141.91
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
39
Growth
95
Profitability
77
Financial Health
89
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.8×
P/B Ratio
5.21×
PEG Ratio
4.66
Dividend Yield
0.60%
52W High
$179.31
52W Low
$124.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
2206.9%
ROA
946.5%
Gross Margin
3764.6%
Operating Margin
2309.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.95
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.2x; PEG ratio of 4.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 22.1%; Return on assets of 9.5%; Net margin of 14.0%; Gross margin of 37.6%; Current ratio of 2.12 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.95; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.19); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 16.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-15.7% -> +132.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 27.7%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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